India
Study projects 15,800 extra India heat deaths
The Indian Express··3d ago
A University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab report projects about 15,800 additional heat deaths in India from September 2026 to February 2027. Researchers tie the rise to Super El Niño warming that lifts global land temperatures 1.2°C above normal. The same six-month window covers 2,39,000 of an estimated 4,51,000 excess deaths since June. India ranks fourth among the hardest-hit countries.
Prism
What It Means For You
- The report flags heat warnings, cooling centres and worker protections as tools that can cut excess deaths.
- Southern India's normally warm winters can push heat deaths higher when layered with abnormal warmth.
- About 7,400 of India's projected additional deaths fall between December 2026 and February 2027 alone.
What's Happening
- The Climate Impact Lab applied mortality models across 24,378 regions to a seasonal forecast.
- Global land temperatures are projected 1.2°C above normal with 44 percent more extremely hot days.
- Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan are listed ahead of India for excess heat deaths in the window.
How the Estimate Was Built
- El Niño warms the equatorial Pacific, can suppress the Indian monsoon and raise temperatures.
- The Lab compares projected deaths with the 1996-2025 average using a 51-member forecast ensemble.
- Authors include Michael Greenstone, Tamma Carleton, Genevieve Maricle and Emily Grover-Kopec.
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