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Anthropic says AI could lift US GDP by 2030
The Hindu BusinessLine··11 Sept
Anthropic's economics report models three US paths to 2030 and says AI raises output in each. In the substantial scenario, US GDP reaches $36.3 trillion, 8.3 percent above a no-AI baseline. In the extreme scenario, GDP could hit $44.4 trillion, 32.4 percent higher. The firm warns knowledge-worker wages and jobs may come under pressure as automation spreads.
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What It Means For You
- Anthropic says knowledge workers could see flat wages in its substantial AI scenario by 2030.
- In the extreme case, it projects sharper unemployment and lower wages for automated roles.
- The report says labour's share of GDP could fall to 45.2 percent in the extreme scenario.
What's Happening
- Anthropic released Scenarios for our Economic Future with modest, substantial and extreme paths.
- Under the substantial path, AI could perform half of knowledge work and growth could run about twice normal.
- The extreme path projects annual GDP growth of 15 percent and an economy that doubles every 4.5 years.
How the Scenarios Split Gains
- Anthropic currently splits output about 60 percent to labour and 40 percent to capital.
- In the extreme scenario, capital's share rises to 54.8 percent.
- The firm said outcomes depend on AI capability, adoption choices and how gains are shared.
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