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Goldman Sachs cuts euro-dollar forecasts toward 1.12
eFXdata··19 Jul
Goldman Sachs revised EUR/USD forecasts to 1.14, 1.12, and 1.12 at three-, six-, and twelve-month horizons, from 1.14, 1.18, and 1.20. The bank said dollar support against low-yielding currencies looks likely to last longer. It also raised its USD/JPY path to 162, 163, and 165 from 160, 158, and 155. Analysts described a divided dollar environment, not uniform gains everywhere.
Prism
What It Means For You
- If you pay for Europe travel, education, or imports invoiced in euros, a lower EUR/USD path implies fewer rupees needed per euro only if the rupee also holds; watch the full cross, not one pair.
- Indian exporters and IT firms billing in dollars often prefer a firmer dollar; Goldman also marked some EM high-yielders, including the rupee, stronger in its revision set.
- Bank forecasts are scenarios, not guarantees; use them to understand rate-differential logic, not as personal investment advice.
What's Happening
- Goldman Sachs cut its six- and twelve-month EUR/USD targets to 1.12 from 1.18 and 1.20, keeping a 1.14 three-month mark.
- It raised USD/JPY forecasts to 162, 163, and 165 across the same horizons, arguing dollar support against low yielders will linger.
- The note describes a divided dollar: strong versus low-yielding currencies, not necessarily strong against every currency at once.
The Numbers Behind the Revision
- EUR/USD had already fallen more than 2 percent in June and was trading near 1.14 when the revised path circulated in mid-July reporting.
- Goldman first flagged tactical dollar support against low yielders in mid-March and is now extending that horizon.
- Consensus earlier in 2026 leaned toward gradual dollar decline; this note is an explicit retreat from that softer-dollar year-end story.
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