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Research houses put Q1 GDP near 7-7.5%
The Hindu BusinessLine··30 Aug
Research houses put India's April-June GDP growth between 7 and 7.5 percent ahead of Monday's MoSPI release. SBI research is an outlier at 8 percent. Barclays estimated 7.5 percent. Bank of Baroda's Jahnavi Prabhakar estimated 7 percent with a possible 20 basis point upside. January-March growth was 7.8 percent. MoSPI publishes the official figure on August 31.
Prism
What It Means For You
- Markets and borrowers will get the official Q1 FY27 print from MoSPI on Monday, August 31.
- The range of private estimates from 7 to 8 percent frames how far the print can surprise.
- Q1 is described as the first full quarter after war began in West Asia, which research notes tied to some soft fuel and fertiliser indicators.
What's Happening
- Barclays said only seven of 20 high-frequency indicators slowed versus the prior quarter.
- SBI's Soumya Kanti Ghosh said 86 percent of more than fifty leading indicators showed acceleration in Q1 FY27.
- Bank of Baroda expects agriculture growth near 3.5 percent, slower than 4.4 percent a year earlier.
The Numbers Behind The Range
- Q4 FY26 growth was 7.8 percent and Q1 FY26 was 6.8 percent.
- Prabhakar projects full-year FY27 growth at 6.6-6.8 percent as West Asia and kharif outcomes clarify.
- SBI argued consumption and demand indicators remain resilient alongside broadly satisfactory industrial activity.
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