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India at 80 faces a young North, ageing South
Firstpost··16 Aug
Eight decades after independence, India has an estimated population of 1.46 billion with a median age of 29.2 years and about 68 percent of working age, a report notes. Southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu are ageing rapidly with fertility near 1.4-1.5, while Bihar and Uttar Pradesh remain younger, with fertility around 2.8-3.0.
Prism
What It Means For You
- If you work in manufacturing or services in the South, expect growing demand for migrant workers from northern states as local labour pools shrink.
- Job seekers in Bihar or Uttar Pradesh may find more opportunities through interstate skill corridors connecting them to southern industrial hubs.
- Women entering the urban workforce face a participation rate of just 25 percent, far below the more than 75 percent for urban men.
What's Happening
- India's working-age population, about 996 million people aged 15-64, forms roughly 68 percent of its 1.46 billion population.
- Kerala and Tamil Nadu have fertility rates near 1.4-1.5, pushing them into an ageing phase, while Bihar's fertility stays around 2.8-3.0.
- Female labour force participation nationally stands at 32.7 to 33.9 percent, with urban participation as low as 25 percent.
A Closing Window Before 2041
- Demographers estimate India's dependency ratio will hit a historic low around 2041, after which population ageing will raise dependants relative to workers.
- Economists suggest raising female employment closer to 47 percent globally could add 1.5 to 2 percentage points to India's annual GDP growth.
- India needs to absorb roughly 10 million new labour-market entrants every year to convert its demographic size into productive output.
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