Environment
Lab projects 15,800 extra India heat deaths
The Hindu··3d ago
Climate Impact Lab projects about 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India from September 2026 to February 2027 under the current Super El Niño, give or take 1,600. Globally it estimates 451,000 excess heat deaths in the event's first six months overall. Eastern equatorial Pacific waters are already more than 3°C above normal, the report said.
Prism
What It Means For You
- The India estimate covers September 2026 to February 2027 against 1996-2025 averages.
- National monsoon rainfall was about 15 percent below normal up to September 22, The Hindu said.
- Nearly 40 percent of India's coal-fired plants reported critically low fuel stocks with hotter weather.
What's Happening
- The University of Chicago-linked lab released the Super El Niño mortality projections on September 23.
- It puts September 2026-February 2027 global excess heat deaths at 239,000 within the 451,000 total.
- Co-founder Michael Greenstone said the maps should guide emergency action in coming months.
How the Estimate Was Built
- The lab applies temperature-mortality relationships across 24,378 regions to seasonal forecasts.
- Forecasts earlier this month gave a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño.
- Full coefficients are promised in a forthcoming peer-reviewed paper, The Hindu reported.
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