1
The river
One river, four names, two dams
The Brahmaputra begins as the Yarlung Tsangpo, near a glacier in western Tibet. It runs east across the plateau for about 1,625 km. Then it hairpins around a mountain called Namcha Barwa and drops about 2,000 metres in 50 km, through the deepest canyon on Earth. That fall is why both countries want to dam it.
Follow the water
From the glacier to the Bay of Bengal. Not to scale.
- Tibet, China · Yarlung Tsangpo
- Angsi glacierThe source. Flows east for about 1,625 km.
- Great Bend, Medog China's damA 60,000 MW project, under construction since July 2025.
- Arunachal Pradesh · Siang · enters India near Gelling
- Tuting and YingkiongUpper Siang. Opponents say the reservoir could reach Yingkiong, the district headquarters.
- Parong, Dite Dime, Ugeng India's planThree candidate dam sites. None chosen yet.
- PasighatThe river leaves the hills. Site of the 23 October clashes.
- Assam and Bangladesh · Brahmaputra, Jamuna
- Sadiya, AssamThe Dibang and Lohit join. From here it is the Brahmaputra.
- BangladeshCalled the Jamuna. Ends in the Bay of Bengal.
The valley belongs to the Adi, Arunachal's second-largest tribe. They farm steep terraces of paddy and oranges, and many of them call the river mother. It is also earthquake country. The 1950 Assam earthquake, magnitude 8.6, reshaped this river system.
2
The pitch
China is building. India is still surveying.
On 19 July 2025, China began building on the lower Yarlung Tsangpo: five power stations, about 60,000 MW, at roughly 1.2 trillion yuan. Finished, it will be the largest hydropower project in the world.
India's answer is SUMP. NHPC would build an 11,200 MW dam with a wall 280 to 300 metres tall and 9.2 billion cubic metres of storage, at an estimated ₹1.13 lakh crore. The state government says power is secondary. The point is to store water.
China's dam and India's plan
Medog makes far more power. SUMP would hold more water.
Power
Medog, Chinaunder construction
SUMP, Indiapre-feasibility
CM Pema Khandu, Deputy CM Chowna MeinHalf true
SUMP protects India from China's "water bomb"
- Tibet supplies roughly a third of the Brahmaputra's water. Most of the rest is monsoon rain that falls after the river enters India.
- The real risks are a sudden release, a dam failure in an earthquake zone, and China not sharing river data.
- A reservoir can only swallow a sudden release if it is kept partly empty.
Our readThe threat is real but smaller than the pitch. China cannot turn off the Brahmaputra. Experts' first ask is real-time river data from Tibet, and a data deal doesn't drown a single village.
Job 1: power and winter flow
- Keep the reservoir full
- A full reservoir makes the most power
- Stored water keeps the river running in dry months
Job 2: catch a flood from China
- Keep the reservoir partly empty
- Empty space is what absorbs a sudden release
- Every metre kept empty is power not made
SUMP is pitched as doing both jobs. It can't do both fully at the same time. That trade-off will be settled by operating rules that don't exist yet.
3
The catch
Agree first. Find out what you lose later.
NHPC says 27 villages on both banks could be affected, partly or fully. The farmers' forum SIFF says 27 would be submerged and 43 affected. Nobody can confirm either number yet, and here's why.
Why the survey is stuck
Drill to test the rock→
Choose the site→
Know which villages go under→
Ask villages to agree
↺ But villages are being asked to agree before the drilling. They can't know what they're agreeing to.
NHPC's project general manager, Amarnath Jha, told ThePrint: "Until the PFR is finalised, we will not finalise the location. Until then, we cannot determine what is being affected." Drilling is on hold because villagers are blocking the sites.
Our read
The state is asking people to say yes before it can tell them what they'd lose. That is backwards, and it is the main reason step 1 keeps stalling. The Adi aren't refusing a dam they have seen. They're refusing a blank cheque.
4
The sell
₹10.9 crore to change minds
- May 2025Forces escort the surveyCentral forces arrive at Beging. Villagers burn a hanging bridge to keep them out.
- May 2025A package for consentOne village is offered a ₹5 crore development package over three years in return for consent to the survey.
- Jul 2025NHPC hires a PR firmMumbai's Concept Public Relations, for ₹8.73 crore.
- Aug 2025Beging signsAn official says 85% of the village backed the MoU. SIFF says people were pressured or paid.
- Aug 2026The PR contract growsAnother ₹2.18 crore, taking the total to ₹10.91 crore.
Anti-dam groups, onlineHalf true
The government hired influencers to spread lies
- The PR brief included engaging influential local individuals, community leaders, NGOs and media, sponsored digital content and tracking public sentiment, plus a separate line for national journalists
- NHPC confirms the hire and calls it routine outreach
- No list of who was paid, or of posts shown to be false, is public
Our readPaid influence is on record. Lies aren't, yet. Public money bought this campaign, so the public should see what it bought: names, posts and payments.
CM Pema Khandu, minister Ojing TasingNot shown
The protests run on misinformation and foreign money
- The CBI has an FCRA case against SIFF's legal adviser Bhanu Tatak, over about ₹17.6 lakh from abroad for research, 2022 to 2025
- Opposition to a Siang dam goes back to the 1980s. Local groups objected within 48 hours of NITI Aayog's 2017 proposal
- The BJP's own Upper Siang general secretary says his party office would go underwater too
Our readOne FCRA case against one adviser does not explain a 40-year-old opposition. When the ruling party's own district office is worried, it isn't a foreign plot.
5
The night it broke
23 October, Pasighat
A 12-hour bandh shut parts of three districts. A youth group calling itself Gen Z stayed on the Pasighat–Boleng highway after it ended. Between 5 and 6.30 pm, it broke.
Police say
- 200 to 300 people threw stones at police and a magistrate
- Tear gas came only after they refused to clear the highway
- 40+ police injured, 9 police vehicles damaged
Protesters say
- They were getting ready to leave
- They heard explosions first
- Then stones came from both sides
By night the NHPC office was burnt, the police station damaged, and the homes of the BJP state president and two MLAs attacked. Two young leaders, lawyer Ebo Mili and Otul Jerang, surrendered the next day. Jerang said the violence went against everything the movement stood for.
69people arrested across three districts
53police cases, 26 of them in Upper Siang
SIFF, protestersHalf true
The army has been sent to silence us
- The forces are central paramilitary and police: CRPF, RAF, ITBP, SSB, an Assam Police battalion and state police. None is the Army
- They first came to Beging in May 2025 to escort the survey, 17 months before Pasighat burned
- They now guard drilling sites at Ugeng, Komkar, Parong and Beging. Some arrests are under the state's unlawful activities law
- The state says they are there to stop violence. On 13 October the CM agreed in principle to cut the deployment
Our readWrong force, right complaint. The forces came to guard a survey, not to answer violence. They can protect a drilling rig. They cannot produce consent.
Our read on the violence
Burning an office and MLAs' homes is not protest, and the movement's own young leaders said so. But arrests under an unlawful activities law turn a land dispute into a security file. Each side's escalation handed the other its best argument.
6
The other border
Face-offs on the LAC. Forces in the valley.
On 22 October, a day before Pasighat burned, ITBP's chief said Indian and Chinese troops had faced off at several places in Arunachal, and that it was still going on.
Protesters, Adi Baane Kebang-UnitedHalf true
The government did nothing when China came, but sends forces to Siang
- ITBP's chief praised his commando teams in the face-offs. A stand-off near Asaphila has been reported since late July
- Corps commander talks were held after a face-off at Taksing
- ITBP guards the China border. ITBP units are also posted in the Siang valley
- The first official confirmation came from a speech at an ITBP ceremony. Congress accuses the PM of silence
Our read"Did nothing" is wrong. Border forces are engaging. The fair point is the contrast. The Centre asks Siang to trust it on China, while the public first heard about the face-offs from a ceremony speech.
Where it stands: NHPC has put drilling on hold. On 31 October the CM said the dam will not be imposed and invited Adi youth and student bodies to talk. SIFF says it won't meet him until detainees are freed and forces withdrawn.
7
What you can take from this
Six things the record tells us
- The dam doesn't exist. The fight is over whether to even look.No rock core drilled, no site chosen, no design. Three more studies stand between the survey and any decision to build.
- China's dam is real. The water bomb is smaller than the pitch.Most of the Brahmaputra is Indian rain. The real gaps are river data and dam safety.
- Villagers are asked to agree before they know what they'd lose.That is why step 1 keeps stalling, and no amount of PR fixes it.
- ₹10.9 crore of public money bought persuasion.If the case for the dam is strong, NHPC can publish who it paid and what they posted.
- Violence and arrests both made it worse.Pasighat gave the state a reason for more forces. The forces gave protesters a reason to distrust talks.
- Consent is the foundation nobody has tested.Forces can guard the rig. Only the people of the valley can say yes.
What you can do
- Ask what the money boughtNHPC is a public sector company, so the RTI Act covers it. Ask for the outputs of the Concept Public Relations contract: events held, content produced, people engaged.
- Send this to someone in AssamWhatever happens on the Siang reaches the Brahmaputra next.
A dam stands on two things: rock and consent. India hasn't tested either.
Swaraj
Notice. Care. Speak.
Should a project of national importance need the consent of the people it would drown? Send this to someone who'd answer differently.